Download counts prediction

Monday, September 5, 2011

Today, Make It 3D Free recorded 20000+ download counts. It took 7 weeks. The first 10000 downloads took 5 weeks while the following 10000 downloads took only 2 weeks.

The number of downloads is very important because the number of downloads is directly related to the number of active installs, revenue from mobile advertisement, etc. (At this time, revenues from PRO sales are hard to predict because there are not enough number of sales records).

People tend to download apps which have good rating of course and large number of downloads. So, to make an app popular, the app should have a large number of download counts. It is like "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer". I have been testing many tips to increase download counts. Some of them didn't work at all while some of them work great. I will post about these tips when I think my app is successful.

Anyway, I am wondering that how many people will download my app two month later, how many days do I need to get 200000 downloads. So, I calculated it. Since I have download record until yesterday, I could predict the record for future.

Above graph illustrates download counts prediction for the Make It 3D Free. The blue line shows recorded download counts until yesterday (Sep. 4), while red dots show predicted download counts. The horizontal axis represents days while the vertical axis represents download counts. The graph shows around 19200 downloads at day 48 (yesterday).

According to my prediction, Make It 3D Free will record 50,000 downloads at day 79 (Oct. 5) and 100,000 downloads at day 111 (Nov. 6), and 200,000 downloads at day 155 (Dec. 20). This prediction looks very hopeful. The prediction is, however, just a prediction. It could be worse or better.

*Downloads Prediction
DownloadsD+DateDaysAvg. down/day
1000035Aug. 2535 286
2000049Sep. 514 714
30000*62Sep. 1813 769
40000*71Sep. 279 1111
50000*79Oct. 58 1250

No comments:

Post a Comment